As part of my reading for the free market internship program I was in this summer, I had to read the essay Rinkonomics: A Window on Spontaneous Order by Daniel B. Klein, which can be found here. When I got to Vietnam I realized how similar the traffic situation was here to the roller rink situation he described.
Vietnamese traffic is, at first glance, chaotic. There are few traffic lights and no stop signs. To make matters even more complicated, at least 90% of motorists are on motorbikes. Americans, who are used to a very structured traffic system, cannot understand why there are not massive collisions and bodies flying everywhere.
The reason may be best attributed to the Spontaneous Order theory, supported by F.A. Hayek and the Austrian School Economists. Hayek said “A spontaneous order is a system which has developed not through the central direction or patronage of one or a few individuals but through the unintended consequences of the decisions of myriad individuals each pursuing their own interests through voluntary exchange, cooperation, and trial and error.”
Even though it seems like the chaos would result in many accidents, it does not because all motorists are pursuing their own self interest; Everyone wants to get where they have to go but no one wants to get injured.
It seems to me that while I do see many accidents, there are really no more than I see on a daily basis in big American cities. This is despite the fact that the traffic here is generally motorbikes which are certainly more prone to accidents than cars are, if for no other reason than they must be balanced and do not stop nearly as easily. However people go about their daily lives with relatively few problems.
Hayek himself noted that the market does occasionally fail. Hayek’s answer for why the market fails, was outside influences. These include increases in the money supply causing artificially low prices and interest rates, as well as regulations that also cause prices to be artificially high or low (ie farm subsidies).
The Vietnamese traffic equivalent to government intervention and regulations, are the western influenced roads and traffic signals. The majority of crashes occur on major roads, and those with stop signs and traffic lights. A common time for these accidents to occur on roads with traffic signals, is when people simply ignore stop signs or go early on a green and late on a red.
What happens on roads without traffic signals, is that everyone slows down and weaves their way through the traffic coming from the other directions and a spontaneous order, like Hayek described, emerges that allows for minimal accidents. Those who do not adapt to this order crash, or in business terms, fail.
On western style roads, with predetermined turning points, much like the “Michigan Left” this system also fails quite often. I was a victim of this regulation. Normally making a left hand turn involves inching through on coming traffic, which is watching for such activity (looking out for their own interest) and swerve or slow down to avoid you, and then making the turn. As I was heading down a major road, traffic was flowing in a prescribed direction and places to turn were clearly marked. A man attempted to make an illegal left hand turn and I hit him, causing me more damage than him. Had the road been a normal Vietnamese road, I would likely have been vigilant of the intersection and known to look for anyone trying to make a left hand turn through the middle of traffic, but because of the regulations, I did not.
Risk also plays a vital role in the order of things. In business, making risky loans, making risky investments, or consistently breaching contracts, often results in failure. Here racing, taking turns too fast, or my favorite, texting while driving your motorbike, will result in a crash… or someone (ie George) getting pissed at your stupidity and knocking you into a parked taxi.
To be fair there are often things that happen, just as in a true free market economy, that also cause crashes, or failure other than regulation. The dog incident described in Getting Into Accidents, is one of those things. Though it could be argued that I should have been aware that hitting a dog with a motorbike is not like hitting a dog with a car, part of the trial and error process Hayek mentioned. This process has indeed made me a better driver, having now gone a month without an accident. However, regulation of Vietnamese traffic, just as in economics, has done much more harm than good.